Bias in Historical Research by Stephenie Woolterton As historical fiction authors and historians, we study and create characters, plots, and worlds that transport our readers to the past. Although we cannot actually visit these bygone times when will they invent that time machine?
The average trade estimate is for These totals are down 93, acres and upacres, respectively, from the March intentions for corn and soybeans. The highly anticipated June Acreage report Historical bias be released Friday, June 30,and will either confirm trade expectations or lead to a market surprise.
A larger than anticipated change in corn and soybean acreage will likely increase uncertainty in new-crop corn and Historical bias prices.
For soybeans, any large increase in soybean acres will be in addition to record-large South American production and increasing domestic inventories. Evidence of bias in the June estimates would suggest market participants should not overreact to any bearish market information.
Bias in March to June Acreage Changes The Farm Bill, or Freedom to Farm Act, decoupled direct payments from planted acreage and increased planting flexibility by allowing farmers to plant outside their commodity-specific base acreage.
This flexibility allowed farmers to alter crop rotation patterns to respond to market price signals and expected crop returns. For soybeans, these acreage changes range from -3 million acres in to an increase of 3. For corn, the acreage changes range from The distribution of percentage changes for corn and soybeans is highlighted in Figure 1.
For corn, the distribution is centered to the right of zero and exhibits a bi-modal distribution. For soybeans, the distribution is non-normal, and instead is wide with heavy tails. Bias in the estimates would occur if the estimates were consistently different than zero, in any direction.
For example, if the USDA consistently reports increases in corn and soybean acreage in the June report, relative to March intentions, the market would build this pattern into their expectations, e. In order to test the null hypothesis that March to June acreage changes are not statistically different than zero, a one-sided t-test is conducted.
The t-test to determine if a sample is different than zero is defined as the ratio of the sample mean and the sample standard deviation adjusted for the sample size.
The critical values of the t-test for rejecting the null hypothesis at a 95 percent confidence level is 1. The alternative hypothesis is that the acreage changes are significantly different than zero. If the t-test is greater in absolute value than 1.
The t-tests for March to June acreage changes, using data from tofor corn and soybeans, respectively, are 5. These test statistics indicate that the null hypothesis should be rejected for corn and soybeans, and that the alternative hypothesis should be accepted.
Figure 2 shows the t-test calculation using to acreage changes. So why are the March to June acreage changes for corn and soybeans statistically different than zero?
A likely reason for the high t-test is that U. For example, from the time planting begins until the first two weeks of June when the survey is completed, growers are responding to weather conditions, the pace of planting, crop conditions, and the pace of old-crop consumption.
These factors impact the economic returns associated with new-crop corn and soybeans — potentially altering acreage allocations. For corn and soybeans, historical acreage changes, combined with the results of the t-test, implies that large positive changes are possible in the June Acreage report.
If additional bias is found, then the market response to the June acreage estimate could be muted, as the market would expect future revisions.Approaching History Bias. Intentional bias, the effort of a person or group to impose their own preference on the past, is bad.
But it is also obvious, and it does not need analysis here. Historical Examples. of bias.
This bias springs from causes which are stable and deep-rooted. England and Germany. Emile Joseph Dillon.
My son believed that this bias for Classics was bad educationally. War Letters of a Public-School Boy. Paul Jones. Bias in Historical Writing. Bias is an inclination or outlook to present or hold a partial perspective, often accompanied by a refusal to consider the possible merits of alternative points of view.
The market is currently anticipating fewer corn acres and additional soybean acres planted in The average trade estimate is for million acres of corn and million acres of soybeans planted in These totals are down 93, acres and up , acres, respectively, from the March intentions for corn and ashio-midori.com highly anticipated June Acreage report will be released.
Our programs here at the Historical Society allow students to work directly with primary source documents, and some of the most interesting feedback received has been through documenting students understanding of political cartoons. As a part of the HINT project here at HSP, we polled over students on what they thought of political cartoons and to learn if they were a good.
In this activity, students use the E.S.C.A.P.E. strategy to closely analyze a historical source, shedding light on historical instances of bias in the news and drawing comparisons to .